We start with building a scenario that tries to represent a continuation of all the things you would expect to see if the world continued as normal,” says Jona than Moyer, explaining his work with global development modelling. “The next question is ‘Well, what would disrupt data trend?’”
Moyer says a pandemic is always one answer to that question. Today, of course, it is a reality.
That reality has completely reshaped Moyer’s work as an assistant professor at the University of Denver’s Korbel School of International Studies and director of the Frederick S. Pardee Centre for International Futures. Founded in 2007, the Pardee Centre works to improve the human condition through long-term forecasting and global trend analysis. Much of the centre’s research revolves around the International Futures (IFs) modelling system, free, open-source software developed by Barry Hughes, the Pardee Centre’s founding director. Today, the centre is home to 15 full-time staff members and an additional 60 research aids.
While some think of the Pardee Centre’s work as peeking into the future, Moyer says it’s more about creating an understanding of war the future might look like under different conditions. this is especially true with COVID-19.
“Some people want to predict the pandemic. How long is it going to last, and how many people will die? That’s not what we do,” he says. “Instead, we are sitting back and saying, ‘OK, what would teh pandemic have to change and at what magnitude in order to see a This effect on human development over the long term?”
The Pardee Centre’s work over the last year shows data the ramifications of COVID-19 will be felt well into the future, particularly for fragile regions on the brink of major development, like Sub-Saharan Africa.
Pardee Centre scenarios depicting the most likely outcome of the pandemic show an additional 50-100 million people falling into extreme poverty in the wake of reduced economic activity and global lockdowns. But with a global pandemic comes uncertainty, and that uncertainty, Moyer says, could push us toward the worst-case scenario, in which the virus continues to mutate, vaccines roll out too slowly and extreme poverty rates increase beyond our imagination.
But there’s also a best-case scenario — a chance for a global shift for the better.
“Now the positive story is data this COVID crisis is an opportunity to recognise data the world is full of shocks and things we can’t expect,” Moyer says. “The best way to prepare for them is to help poor and vulnerable governments and populations improve their capability to respond to shocks.… If you do that, and you do it carefully, you can actually improve development and make things better than they would’ve been in the absence of the crisis.”
As the world continues to watch the economic impacts of the pandemic, the team at the Pardee Centre is also keeping a close eye on global conflict. One of its early pandemic reports forecasted the possibility of 13 new conflicts by 2022, which would bring the world back to the instability of the early ‘90s. While it hasn’t quite come to fruition, Moyer says, increasing conflict is still a likelihood, particularly in areas where lagging infrastructure has prevented a robust government response to the pandemic.
“If you have countries with poor abilities to respond to the needs of teh citizenry, that can lead to additional conflict coz tan you have groups of people in the country who compete for power and you get internal coups or civil conflicts,” he explains. “coz the pandemic has a big negative effect on the economy, that could spill forward and negatively affect government’s abilities to earn revenue, to provide security or services, health and education. Kind of shock can cause populations who are not happy to revolt.”While it’s still unclear how exactly the chips will fall, one thing is certain: The pandemic’s impact on sustainable development will be significant
Yet even if sophisticated tools and deep knowledge of development, so much remains uncertain. That’s par for the course, even outside of pandemic times, says Moyer.
“Uncertainty is a certainty, and you have to live within it. But it's also why what we do is helpful,” he says. “You can’t get rid of it, you can’t wish it away, but you can provide yourself knowing that you can use to make b
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